The Future of Metal Recycling: Industry Predictions for 2035

As we approach 2035, the metal recycling industry is poised for significant change, driven by advancements in technology, stricter environmental regulations, and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). According to the Department for Transport’s regulatory impact assessment (November 2023), the UK government remains committed to reducing carbon emissions, with transport currently accounting for approximately 27% of total national emissions.

This guide explores what the future holds for metal recycling, including the challenges and opportunities presented by electric vehicles, the environmental implications of battery recycling, and how businesses like Scrap Local are preparing to thrive in a greener, more sustainable future.

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What Will the Automotive Industry Look Like by 2035?

The UK automotive industry is undergoing a major shift towards a fully electric future. Initially, the government planned to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030, but this deadline has been extended to 2035 to allow consumers and industries more time to adapt. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) projects that EVs will constitute 65-70% of new vehicle sales by 2035, underscoring the magnitude of this transition.

The extension to 2035 provides both challenges and opportunities for the metal recycling industry. Businesses must prepare for an influx of scrap vehicles while developing expertise in handling new materials like EV batteries and electronic components.

As part of this transition:

  • Electric Vehicles (EVs) Will Dominate New Car Sales

    With government investments like the £1.8 billion zero-emission vehicle fund and the £300 million plug-in grant scheme, EV adoption is accelerating.

    The Faraday Battery Challenge estimates that EV battery recycling could become a £2.7 billion industry in the UK by 2035, highlighting the significant economic potential of this shift.

  • An Influx of Scrapped Vehicles

    Older petrol and diesel cars will become less desirable, particularly in urban areas with stricter low-emission zones.

    Research from the University of Birmingham suggests this will lead to a surge in vehicles reaching end-of-life status, increasing the volume of scrap cars handled by recyclers.

  • Technological Innovation

    The shift to EVs is fostering advancements in vehicle technology, including improved battery efficiency, autonomous driving capabilities, and vehicle-to-grid energy systems.

    The Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) estimates that effective battery recycling could reduce raw material extraction by up to 40%.

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Shifting to Electric Vehicles: Opportunities and Challenges

The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) brings both exciting opportunities and unique challenges for the metal recycling industry. According to Imperial College London’s Grantham Research Institute, the environmental impact of this transition is complex but promising.

Opportunities in EV Recycling

Emerging Markets for Battery Recycling

EV batteries contain valuable materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which can be recovered and reused. A study by the WMG, University of Warwick, indicates that advanced chemical leaching processes could recover up to 95% of these critical materials, creating a potentially lucrative market for specialised recyclers.

Increased Vehicle Scrappage

With older petrol and diesel vehicles becoming obsolete, scrap yards are likely to see a surge in end-of-life vehicles. The Environment Act 2021 is expected to introduce regulations that will further incentivise responsible vehicle recycling.

Technological Innovation

The rise of EVs encourages the development of advanced recycling techniques. Dr Emma Thompson from the UK Battery Recycling Consortium notes that “innovation in automated sorting systems and chemical processes for recovering rare materials will be crucial to the industry’s future.”

Challenges with EV Recycling

 

Complexity of EV Batteries

Recycling EV batteries requires specialised knowledge and equipment. The Faraday Institution reports that the current recycling process can be energy-intensive, with battery production generating 50-70 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh of battery capacity.

Fluctuating Scrap Metal Prices

The increased availability of scrap vehicles may drive down metal prices. SMMT projections suggest that recyclers will need to focus on efficiency and explore alternative revenue streams, such as partnerships with EV manufacturers.

Regulatory Compliance

Evolving environmental standards will require recyclers to stay constantly updated. The proposed Battery Waste Regulations (expected 2025) will mandate minimum recycled content in new battery production and comprehensive lifecycle tracking.

Environmental Benefits and Challenges of EV Recycling

The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) offers significant environmental benefits, but it also presents challenges that the recycling industry must address. Imperial College London’s research provides insights into this complex landscape.

Environmental Benefits of EV Recycling

Reducing Carbon Emissions:

EVs produce zero emissions during use, potentially reducing transportation-related carbon emissions by up to 70% compared to traditional combustion engines. Recycling

EV batteries and components further reduces emissions by limiting the need for energy-intensive raw material extraction.

Promoting the Circular Economy:

The Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) highlights how recycling materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel from EV batteries support the circular economy by reusing valuable resources and reducing dependency on mining.

Minimising Landfill Waste:

Proper recycling of EVs ensures that hazardous materials do not end up in landfills. The Environment Act 2021 provides a regulatory framework to support these sustainable practices.

Environmental Challenges of EV Recycling

Battery Production Footprint:

While EVs reduce emissions during use, their production has a significant environmental cost. The Imperial College London study reveals that battery manufacturing currently involves substantial carbon emissions and resource extraction.

Hazardous Waste Management:

EV batteries pose complex recycling challenges. Specialised facilities are required to process these components safely, as highlighted by research from the University of Warwick’s advanced manufacturing research centre.

Energy Usage in Recycling Processes:

The energy required to extract and recycle materials from EV components remains a critical consideration. The Faraday Battery Challenge is actively researching more energy-efficient recycling methodologies.

Implications for the Metal Recycling Industry

The transition to a fully electric future brings transformative implications for the metal recycling industry. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the anticipated influx of end-of-life petrol and diesel cars by 2035 is expected to create significant market disruption.

While the surge in scrap volumes may temporarily lower the market price of common metals like steel and aluminium, the Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) suggests that innovative recyclers can offset this challenge. The Faraday Battery Challenge estimates potential new revenue streams could reach £2.7 billion in EV battery recycling alone by 2035.

The complexity of handling EV materials, particularly batteries, requires specialised expertise. Research from the University of Birmingham indicates that recyclers who develop proficiency in extracting materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel will have a competitive advantage. The Environment Act 2021 and proposed Battery Waste Regulations will further incentivise advanced recycling technologies.

Emerging technologies, such as automated dismantling systems developed by WMG at the University of Warwick, could provide recyclers with a critical edge. Dr Emma Thompson from the UK Battery Recycling Consortium emphasises that “data-driven inventory management and advanced material recovery techniques will be key to success in the evolving recycling landscape.”

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How Scrap Local Prepares for the Future of Recycling

As the metal recycling industry evolves, Scrap Local demonstrates a forward-thinking approach aligned with national sustainability goals. The company’s strategy reflects insights from key industry research and regulatory frameworks.

  • Investing in EV Recycling Expertise

    Collaborating with certified Authorised Treatment Facilities (ATFs) accredited by the Environment Agency, Scrap Local is positioning itself at the forefront of sustainable vehicle recycling. The Faraday Battery Challenge’s research guides their approach to handling complex EV components.

  • Supporting the Circular Economy

    By partnering with advanced facilities recommended by the Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP), Scrap Local contributes to the national goal of reducing raw material extraction by up to 40%. Their processes align with the circular economy principles outlined in the Environment Act 2021.

  • Adapting to Market Changes

    The SMMT projects a 65-70% EV market share by 2035, and Scrap Local is preparing accordingly. Their network is developing capabilities to handle both traditional and electric vehicles, informed by research from leading institutions like the University of Birmingham WMG and, the University of Warwick.

  • Simplifying the Scrapping Experience

    Scrap Local’s approach reflects the Department for Transport’s guidance on sustainable vehicle disposal. By connecting customers with certified ATFs nationwide, they ensure vehicles are processed in compliance with the latest environmental regulations.

Preparing for a Sustainable Future in Metal Recycling

The metal recycling industry is on the brink of transformation as we approach 2035. With the shift to electric vehicles, stricter environmental regulations, and an influx of end-of-life petrol and diesel cars, recyclers face both challenges and opportunities. Adapting to new materials, like EV batteries, and embracing sustainable practices will be key to thriving in this evolving landscape.

For businesses like Scrap Local, the future presents an exciting chance to lead the way in responsible recycling. By investing in advanced recycling technologies, supporting the circular economy, and simplifying the scrapping process for customers, Scrap Local is committed to shaping a greener, more efficient industry.

References

  1. Department for Transport, Future of Transport Report, 2023
  2. Faraday Battery Challenge Annual Report, 2023
  3. WRAP Circular Economy Assessment, 2022
  4. Imperial College London Grantham Research Institute EV Impact Study, 2023
  5. Environment Act 2021 Regulatory Impact Assessment
  6. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) Electric Vehicle Market Report, 2023
  7. University of Birmingham Battery Recycling Research
  8. WMG, University of Warwick Advanced Manufacturing Research
FAQs: The Future of Metal Recycling

As the metal recycling industry evolves, questions arise about how it will adapt to new technologies, regulations, and materials. Get answers to common queries about the future of recycling, including the impact of electric vehicles, environmental challenges, and Scrap Local’s role.

  • What changes will the metal recycling industry face by 2035?

    By 2035, the shift to electric vehicles will bring new materials like EV batteries into the recycling stream. The industry will need to adapt to handle increased vehicle volumes and evolving environmental regulations.

  • How will electric vehicles impact the recycling industry?

    EVs will create demand for recycling materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel from batteries. This shift offers opportunities for recyclers but also requires significant investment in specialised processes.

  • Why was the petrol and diesel car ban extended to 2035?

    The UK government extended the ban to allow industries and consumers more time to transition to electric vehicles, ensuring infrastructure and market readiness.

  • What environmental benefits does EV recycling offer?

    Recycling EV batteries and components reduces waste, lowers carbon emissions, and promotes the reuse of valuable materials, supporting a circular economy.

  • What challenges does the metal recycling industry face with EVs?

    Challenges include the safe handling of hazardous battery materials, meeting strict regulatory standards, and investing in costly recycling technologies.

  • How is Scrap Local preparing for the future of recycling?

    Scrap Local is partnering with certified ATFs, investing in EV recycling expertise, and optimising processes to handle the influx of vehicles sustainably and efficiently.

  • Will scrap metal prices drop with increased vehicle scrappage?

    A higher volume of scrap vehicles may temporarily lower prices, but recyclers can offset this by optimising efficiency and exploring new revenue streams like battery recycling.

  • How can consumers benefit from the changes in metal recycling?

    Consumers can benefit from more efficient recycling processes, greater access to eco-friendly disposal options, and opportunities to contribute to sustainability efforts.

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